Montcalm, Michigan

Min-Model

Quadratic-Model

Nov 28, "state" Population COVID-positive All infections (model) Contagious (model) Immune (model) Fatalities Fatality rate (model) Nov 28 63,888 1,972 9,199 1.7797% 12.6181% 24 0.2609% Dec 31, predictions COVID-positive All infections Contagious Immune Fatalities Dec 31 2,866 13,411 1.3774% 19.614% 35 Event/Party Threat Level: Going to a party? Check the threat level for your chances to get COVID. For staying 1 hour at a party with 20 people, the threat is: NO MASKS: ORANGE: 23.3% YES MASKS: ORANGE: 15.4% BLUE : low, <5% YELLOW : med, 5-15% ORANGE : risky, 15-25% RED : danger, >25% (For other party sizes and durations, scroll down to our COVID-Party-Planner.)

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COVID-Party-Planner: chances of COVID depending on party-size and duration.


Assumptions: All members at the party are independent random draws from the county population. The mingling model is random shifts of 4 people per 10 minutes. 10 minutes of mingling with an infected person suffice to transmit infection.