Ottawa, Michigan

Min-Model

Quadratic-Model

Nov 28, "state" Population COVID-positive All infections (model) Contagious (model) Immune (model) Fatalities Fatality rate (model) Nov 28 291,830 13,559 82,943 5.2688% 23.1526% 151 0.1821% Dec 31, predictions COVID-positive All infections Contagious Immune Fatalities Dec 31 23,103 122,345 2.4189% 39.5045% 223 Event/Party Threat Level: Going to a party? Check the threat level for your chances to get COVID. For staying 1 hour at a party with 20 people, the threat is: NO MASKS: RED: 54.9% YES MASKS: RED: 38.9% BLUE : low, <5% YELLOW : med, 5-15% ORANGE : risky, 15-25% RED : danger, >25% (For other party sizes and durations, scroll down to our COVID-Party-Planner.)

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COVID-Party-Planner: chances of COVID depending on party-size and duration.


Assumptions: All members at the party are independent random draws from the county population. The mingling model is random shifts of 4 people per 10 minutes. 10 minutes of mingling with an infected person suffice to transmit infection.