Erie, New York

Min-Model

Quadratic-Model

Nov 28, "state" Population COVID-positive All infections (model) Contagious (model) Immune (model) Fatalities Fatality rate (model) Nov 28 918,702 24,440 232,754 10.0142% 15.3208% 791 0.3398% Dec 31, predictions COVID-positive All infections Contagious Immune Fatalities Dec 31 112,014 611,978 3.6304% 62.9829% 2,080 Event/Party Threat Level: Going to a party? Check the threat level for your chances to get COVID. For staying 1 hour at a party with 20 people, the threat is: NO MASKS: RED: 78.7% YES MASKS: RED: 60.6% BLUE : low, <5% YELLOW : med, 5-15% ORANGE : risky, 15-25% RED : danger, >25% (For other party sizes and durations, scroll down to our COVID-Party-Planner.)

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COVID-Party-Planner: chances of COVID depending on party-size and duration.


Assumptions: All members at the party are independent random draws from the county population. The mingling model is random shifts of 4 people per 10 minutes. 10 minutes of mingling with an infected person suffice to transmit infection.